Silly Season Rumors

No guaranteed we'll have another year like that, but there are two huge pieces on the chessboard right now, and if they move, then everything around them moves as well.

First thing to note, though: Jett Lawrence is off the board. He's signed a long-term extension with Honda HRC, we've heard, but the terms are still not announced. He will not be a free agent, though.

There are two riders that could really shake up the landscape, though. There are heavy rumors that Chase Sexton is entertaining or even signing an offer from Monster Energy Kawasaki. Yeah, Kawi is going big. They are paying Jorge Prado well and now they've made an offer at Sexton.

Sexton does have an offer to stay with KTM. Of course there's that news that KTM was in financial trouble over at the HQ in Europe, but they're secured the funding to keep going, and they continue to say marketing is racing, and they still want to compete at the high level. The rumor is that KTM's offer to keep Sexton is actually for more money than they're paying him now. Red Bull KTM Team Manager Ian Harrison has said they're doing everything they can to keep Chase in orange for 2026, so clearly they're still capable of spending big money for a proven 450 champion.

By the way, what does "big money" actually mean? Well, I don't even know the numbers for certain, but I can give you a huge window that maybe will provide some clarity. I would say a top-level 450 guy, meaning guys that could win races or a championship, is going to start above the million-dollar range and then maybe go to about $2.5 million a year salary. Then you have to consider bonuses. Generally a factory team pays more than $100,000 to win a supercross race. Now I've heard some riders are pushing $175,000 for a potential Supercross individual race win bonus, they're likely doing that by removing a podium bonus and stacking it all on wins. Also, riders get around around $100,000 to win a Pro Motocross national and then championship bonuses are generally considered in the million-dollar range plus for a 450 rider. There also there are things called accelerators. If a rider in year one of a contract performs really well, say he wins a 450 title, it kicks in a big raise in the next year or an automatic redo for two more years at a high salary. 

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I think KTM still wants to spend that money on Sexton. Will he stay?  In my opinion, maybe he's not signed with Kawasaki yet, but that seems to be the more likely destination.

Now the mind begins to boggle. If Sexton jumps, the entire chess board changes, starting with Jason Anderson, who'll be looking for work. There's another big piece, though.

What if Eli Tomac keeps racing? 

Eli had said 2025 would be his last full season. At the Anaheim 1 press conference, though, I asked if there's a chance he's back for Anaheim 1 of 2026, and he basically said it depends on how he feels and if he could put some wins on the board. Well, he got one win this year (so far) but it was a huge one over Jett Lawrence in San Diego. If you're Tomac, A) that's a sign that you still got it and you want to keep racing, and B) it's a sign that you're not going to do it at a discount because you're still an elite-level rider and should be paid the market rate for that.

This is a problem for Yamaha, because we thought Tomac could be retiring in 2022 or 2023 or 2024 or 2025. He he could be racing all the way into 2027!  Yamaha doesn't want to put the guy out to pasture. Someone there actually told me that they had plans for a Ryan Villopoto type ambassador deal for Tomac to do fun stuff with the brand when he was done racing. Ambassador deals don't pay nearly as much as what championship-contender deals do, plus beyond the pay, servicing a rider at Tomac's level with a factory bike, parts, staff and more probably rings up another half-million a year in budget, easily. 

Yamaha has a nice problem: too many stars. They eventually had to pay Cooper Webb what he's worth. They've done that. They were able to afford high salary Tomac and Webb in the same year this year, but now Haiden Deegan's deal is up. Deegan has proven to be the best 250 racer in America right now, and he'll probably transition into the 450 class next year, probably in Pro Motocross. They're going to have to pay him.

Yamaha simply can't pay Deegan, Webb, and Tomac what they're worth. It's way, way out of budget. Tomac doesn't want to retire and shouldn't have to accept a pay cut. So, meanwhile, if Sexton jumps to Kawasaki could Tomac go to Red Bull KTM? That would be bizarre in many ways. First, let's address the energy drink thing. Yes, Tomac has never been a Red Bull athlete, but situations like this make for strange bedfellows. If a top-level factory team that has proven it can win races and titles is looking to offer Tomac the salary he wants and deserves, he's got to consider it.

The toughest thing about Tomac leaving Yamaha is his love of the cable clutch. KTM is the anti-cable clutch brand. They had a hydraulic clutch on their bikes long before any other brand. Eli didn't like it was Kawasaki switched to a hydraulic clutch years ago. But what other option does he have? Suzuki, they have a cable clutch, Yamaha, they have a cable clutch. Could Tomac go to Progressive Ecstar Twisted Tea, Suzuki? That seems crazy. I suppose it's possible. I know that Ken Roczen wants to stay there and they want to keep Ken.

But that leads us to two manufacturers moving into the space. First Triumph's 450 program. They're preaching patience, as it might just be Jordan Smith on that bike next year, without the expectation of going out and winning the 450 Supercross title right off the rip. But Jeremy Coker, who worked very closely with Tomac in the Yamaha years, is now the General Manager of racing over at Triumph. There's a relationship. I've also heard these rumors they could bring on Rockstar money if they got Tomac, and that could provide some funding. What I've heard more recently is that that's not going to happen, they're going to stick with the goal of starting smaller in the 450s.  When you bring on someone of Tomac’s level, and he struggles because a bike isn't quite ready for his level yet, it could set the brand back years from a marketing perspective.

Then there's the Ducati option. It's not quite what you think though. I think everyone assumed Ducati was going to come in and spend massive money. That's actually not the case. They were shopping for a private team to help them fund and fill in some of the budget gaps they would need to race dirt bikes in America. They found it with the Troy Lee Designs team, which will run the Ducati program.  There are many relationships that work well with Tomac and TLD. Factory Connection is going to be handling development and the suspension for those motorcycles. Factory Connection, of course, ran the GEICO Honda team that Tomac had great success with through the years. PPG is a sponsor of TLD, and they've also been a personal sponsor of Tomac for a long time. And even the Troy Lee Designs relationship, Eli used to wear TLD gear when he was a youngster in his Suzuki days as an amateur.

So, there are some things that could work, but that bike will have a hydraulic clutch. Also can Ducati, in year one, find the money Tomac is looking for? Is it ready to win supercross races immediately? Ducati has this sterling rep right now because of its recent dominance in MotoGP. Still, like Triumph, it's a huge ask to go from not racing 450 supercross at all to expecting to see a San Diego 2025 performance out of Tomac right out of the gate. Because no way is Eli coming back to be a top-seven guy working out the kinks in a new bike. He's racing to win.

There are other riders linked up with Ducati, of course. No one would be surprised for Justin Barcia to end up there. He rode for the Troy Lee Designs team just as recently as last year. And people still think Roczen could go there again. I think Roczen would like to stay with Suzuki, but if you're Roczen, if you're Barcia, if you're Tomac, this is negotiating 101: take as many offers as you can and try to get leverage.

Another thing to consider with Ducati. It's the Troy Lee Designs team. What does Troy Lee Designs do? They make gear, so they'd have to get through a stumbling block with Ken Roczen who has been a Fox rider for 20 years. Would they let someone wear other gear than TLD on a TLD team? Would Tomac wear TLD? Would Tomac stay with Alpinestars? How is that going to work?